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"The biggest investing errors come not from factors that are informational or analytical, but from those that are psychological." — Howard Marks, The Most Important Thing, 2011
"The level of the federal funds rate relative to the neutral rate determines whether monetary policy is accommodative, neutral, or restrictive." — Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, 2022
"The yield curve has inverted before each recession since 1955, with a recession following in six to 24 months." — Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, 2023
"The VIX is often referred to as the market's 'fear gauge' because it spikes during market turmoil or periods of extreme uncertainty." — Chicago Board Options Exchange (CBOE), 2024
"The Federal Reserve prefers the PCE price index because it covers a wide range of household spending and reflects changes in consumer behavior." — Federal Reserve Board, 2023
"The unemployment rate is an important indicator of labor market slack and is a component of the Fed's dual mandate." — Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2024
"Consumer sentiment is a leading indicator of consumer spending, which drives approximately 70 percent of U.S. economic growth." — University of Michigan Survey of Consumers, 2023
"In 2020, M2 increased at a record pace, yet inflation remained subdued through most of 2020. It was only in 2021 that inflation started to rise significantly." — Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, 2023
"Foreign holdings of U.S. Treasury securities represent a significant portion of the U.S. national debt and can influence interest rates." — U.S. Department of the Treasury, 2024